Tuesday, October 23, 2007

DFA asks: Is Gore in or out?

Something interesting is happening over at Democracy for America--a poll they've been running for some time now has former Vice President Al Gore in the lead with 20,000+ votes.

In an email I received from DFA, the question is being posed as to whether or not Gore is in or out. Well is he? Has Gore absolutely said in no uncertain terms that he will NOT run for the presidency again? Maybe I missed those words. I would have loved to hear them...

The email stated that in the end only an announced candidate can win the poll. And, at this moment Obama is about 5,000 votes behind Gore (followed by Edwards, Kucinich, Clinton, Richardson, "Other," Biden, Gravel, and Dodd in that order). The poll doesn't close until November 5th, so anything could happen, but it should be interesting to see if DFA has to pick the #1 candidate based on their rule about announced candidates.

If you have responded to the poll, you know that you can place your top three candidates in order of preference in the three boxes. This was difficult for me, as I've said before I am not particularly thrilled with any of the candidates and haven't thrown my support behind any of them, but, ironically, I settled on Mr. Gore in the top spot, following by Senators Dodd and Biden. Of the announced candidates I have to say that Dodd is the closest to what I would like to see in the Democratic nominee, but at this point that isn't saying much considering that Kucinich and Gravel are closest to me in political philosophy...

Should be fun to watch this poll play out.

*UPDATE (1:57 pm MST): An interesting note--DFA now lists both the actual poll results (with Gore) and below that the poll results minus those who have not formally announced. With Gore gone, Obama holds steady in spot one, but the candidates who received the most noticeable jumps from the elimination of Gore? Dodd, Biden, and Gravel. In fact the votes for Biden and Dodd more than doubled in the second reporting of results minus Al Gore. What does this say about Democrats in the Gore camp? I can't pinpoint it exactly, but it is certainly worth noting that those who support Gore are quite closely linked to the popularity of Dodd and Biden.

5 comments:

Julie Fanselow said...

Tara, sorry, I don't buy it. Dodd, Biden, and Gravel are the bottom three in both polls, in the low single digits. It looks to me like all the non-Gore candidates benefit when Gore isn't included, with Edwards perhaps gaining the most since he's well behind Obama in the poll with Gore and neck-and-neck with him when Gore is out. (I don't have time to crunch stats here, so this is just a very cursory analysis on my part!)

Here's my pragmatic view: Obama, Dodd, and Biden and possibly Clinton would do great against any of the Republicans. Kucinich and Gravel would send many independent voters scurrying to the GOP. Edwards is a wild card. The GOP noice machine seems to hate him almost as much as they do Clinton.

But Gore HAS said he's not planning to run, and only three of these people are registering in the polls and in fundraising. I think people really need to start focusing on Clinton, Edwards, and Obama and decide which has the best blend of policy smarts and electability.

As for Biden and Dodd, I hope they're either VP picks or high-level cabinet positions, because they are smart as hell but just not resonating for 08.

Jessica said...

Julie, I know it's a bit early to be focusing a lot on polls, but Edwards polls better against all of the Repubs than any of the other Dems. Aside from Kuc and Gravel, Edwards is the most progressive, but polling shows he is viewed as the most moderate (must be that sexy southeran accent!)...so not sure I would call Edwards a wild card when all of the polls show otherwise.

Julie Fanselow said...

Hey, I just noticed that Chris DODD polled second (after Edwards) on the most recent straw poll at Daily Kos. He tripled his percentage (from 7 to 21) over the previous poll:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/10/22/153814/28

This is obviously due to his strong stands on FISA and Iraq. He may not yet be out of this race.

Jessica said...

Dodd isn't out and has pulled some staff from New Hampshire to send to Iowa...

Jessica said...

In fact, out of all of the candidates, Dodd and Biden had the best retail politics, in my opinion. I was pleasantly surprised at how cool and down to earth they both are. Dodd treated me as if I was an old friend and Biden thanked me for my work on this campaign, which was very cool.